(no subject)
Oct. 16th, 2008 03:06 pmI actually didn't listen to the debate last night. Kip got a flat tire Tuesday and I had to go pick him up right before the Candidates Forum the League of Women Voters was sponsoring--I wasn't late to the Forum, but I did show up in my shorts instead of the nice clothes I'd been intending to wear. So yesterday after Kip was done with work, we drove out to the parking lot where he'd left his crippled car, and Kip jacked it up, took off the flat, put the donut on, and we took the flat (in my car) to the nearest tire place. They were closed by then. Grumpy (well, I was grumpy; Kip doesn't get grumpy, much) and tired, we went shopping, bought comfort food, and went home. I didn't realize until about 9:30 that it was debate night, and by then I was in bed, because I was going to have to drive Kip to work at 7:30am. I thought briefly about getting up and listening, but decided if I did that it would take me hours to calm down enough to go to sleep. So I deliberately left the debate unlistened-to.
I think it came out okay anyway; at least that's what most people seem to think. So that's good then.
*Plus* today I called around to 3 local tire places, figured out the best deal, took my bike pump out to Kip's car, pumped the donut to its regulation pressure, let the car off the jack, and drove it to the tire place. I got the new tires put on, then drove around looking at houses, then got the alignment done, and took the car over to Carson-Newman for Kip. Go me!
In the meantime, what I was intending to post about yesterday: ACORN.
The Republicans are trying to make a big deal of ACORN's voter registration drive. They have some questionable voter registrations, duplicates, registrations made out in the name of Mickey Mouse, that kind of thing.
The kicker is that of 1,000,000 voter registrations collected, 30,000 seem to be bad. For those who lose track of all those zeros, that's an error rate of 3%.
3%.
In 2004 I helped register voters. I spent six hours sitting in a grocery store, asking people if they would like to register. I got all kinds of responses; people who wanted to register and were grateful for the chance, people who decided to register when they saw other people registering, people who were uninterested, people who were out and out hostile (at the electoral process itself, fortunately, not at me.) I think I got 30 forms.
If I'd had one joker--one--who thought it was funny to fill out a registration in the name of Mikey Mouse, I'd have had an error rate of 3%. I didn't check any of those registration forms before I turned them in; those peoples addresses were not any of my business, so I wouldn't have known. But in case I did have such a joker, I assure you, I was not trying to finagle anything.
But the Republicans would be happy to throw out all 29 of the real registration forms over the one bad one.
I think it came out okay anyway; at least that's what most people seem to think. So that's good then.
*Plus* today I called around to 3 local tire places, figured out the best deal, took my bike pump out to Kip's car, pumped the donut to its regulation pressure, let the car off the jack, and drove it to the tire place. I got the new tires put on, then drove around looking at houses, then got the alignment done, and took the car over to Carson-Newman for Kip. Go me!
In the meantime, what I was intending to post about yesterday: ACORN.
The Republicans are trying to make a big deal of ACORN's voter registration drive. They have some questionable voter registrations, duplicates, registrations made out in the name of Mickey Mouse, that kind of thing.
The kicker is that of 1,000,000 voter registrations collected, 30,000 seem to be bad. For those who lose track of all those zeros, that's an error rate of 3%.
3%.
In 2004 I helped register voters. I spent six hours sitting in a grocery store, asking people if they would like to register. I got all kinds of responses; people who wanted to register and were grateful for the chance, people who decided to register when they saw other people registering, people who were uninterested, people who were out and out hostile (at the electoral process itself, fortunately, not at me.) I think I got 30 forms.
If I'd had one joker--one--who thought it was funny to fill out a registration in the name of Mikey Mouse, I'd have had an error rate of 3%. I didn't check any of those registration forms before I turned them in; those peoples addresses were not any of my business, so I wouldn't have known. But in case I did have such a joker, I assure you, I was not trying to finagle anything.
But the Republicans would be happy to throw out all 29 of the real registration forms over the one bad one.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-16 07:31 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 01:41 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 03:44 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-16 07:41 pm (UTC)Anyhow, my understanding of the ACORN thing is that this 3% error rate is made up mostly of a few batches of registrations that are clearly not kosher. Fake names, multiple registrations in the same handwriting. What that tells me is that there's a couple of bad apples in the bunch. could be any of:
1. Some overzealous volunteers who cheated. Very unlikely that the higher-ups would know about this. The equivalent of if I got on the phone banks and, without authorization or notice, decided the thing to do was to call undecided voters and say "We are sex offenders and we want you to vote for McCain."
2. Some homeless people getting some remuneration for their work decided to supplement a small take of valid registrations by making up their own. Again, the higher-ups would be completely unaware that this was happening.
3. It's possible a Republican mole did this specifically to create plausibility for GOP accusations of fraud.
In ALL of these cases, the safe bet is that ACORN did not knowingly do anything wrong, and neither McCain nor Obama have cause to regret that they are both associated with the organization.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 01:47 pm (UTC)plus,
4) as I understand it, groups that try to get people registered are not allowed to pick and choose which registrations they turn in--they *must* turn in *every* single one. Which is basically a good thing; how much of a pisser would it be if you filled out a registration form at Costco, and thought you were registered, but it got thrown out because the person handling the forms didn't want anyone of your party to be able to vote? All organizations are allowed to do is to flag the forms they think might be suspect. Which ACORN duly did and they're *still* being blamed.
and
5) Voter Registration Fraud is not the same as Voter Fraud. Voter Fraud is if I went and voted twice, say under two different names at two different polling places. Voter Registration Fraud would be if I filled out a registration for Donald Duck. Or Howie Mandel, or someone else I am not.
While Voter Registration fraud is a waste of the election committee's time, it's Voter Fraud you have to actually watch out for. Different things. ACORN is *not* accused of Voter Fraud. Though certain Republicans would love for you to be confused about that.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-16 08:36 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 01:48 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-16 08:55 pm (UTC)"...voter registration fraud is very different from actual voter fraud and voter suppression".
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 01:48 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-16 10:57 pm (UTC)Having said that, I'll also say that while it sounds real good to dismiss 30,000 errors as a 3% error rate, the excitement isn't about the error rate*, it's about the canvassers themselves writing in phony names. Chicago has a long history of registering the dead, which adds to this drama.
I happen to be a quality test engineer. I've worked in that capacity for Motorola, Sony and HP, among others. None of those companies would accept a 3% error rate. Motorola's published goal is 0.03%.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 05:23 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 07:43 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 02:04 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 04:28 pm (UTC)Yes, I think so too. But ACORN apparently disagrees with us.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 07:00 pm (UTC)See, *this* pisses me off. ACORN turned in some bad voter registrations--as required by law--they can't just dump them themselves, even though they were the ones taken advantage of. They even flagged a lot of them as suspicious themselves, to make sure the election commissions spotted them.
Yet despite all that, your *first* assumption that it was part of some big plot to get more Democratic votes the hard way--rather than using the easy way of getting out the Democratic votes.
ACORN doesn't disagree with us. ACORN disagrees with people who think poor and minority people don't deserve an equal chance to vote, or decent housing. Neither one of us is like that.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 03:47 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 07:01 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 07:53 pm (UTC)Anyhow, back to lighting & user interface design.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 01:59 pm (UTC)Hmm, just guessing here, so I'll let you tell me--are any of those companies running programs that, like a voter registration effort, are active only for a few months every four years and staffed mostly by hastily recruited volunteers and poorly paid short term recruits with only a few days (if that) of training for their positions?
Are any of these companies dealing in material largely produced by people over whom the companies have little or no control, no job to take away, no paycheck to stop? You know, the way voter registration forms are filled out by people that the collectors of the forms have no power to coerce?
Are any of these companies required by law to pass every single object produced, no matter how obviously flawed, on to the next step of the process, the way groups that register voters are required by law to pass every form on to the election commission?
It is unrealistic to compare voter registration forms to microchips. A better comparison would be, oh, say, library cards.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 04:26 pm (UTC)So you are advocating a piece 'o' crap voter registration drive?
no power to coerce
Nobody has to coerce me to do my best when I volunteer to register voters. I expect you hold yourself to the same high standards when you volunteer that you hold yourself to at work. Maybe higher. Don't make excuses for people who lack your basic integrity.
Are any of these companies required by law to pass every single object produced
Absolutely. And we can get fined and sued big-time if a product fails. There are ISO standards everyone on my team has to meet, and we are inspected quarterly.
It is unrealistic to compare voter registration forms to microchips.
We don't make microchips, we make complete devices. If you have a cable TV box, it is probably made by Motorola. When I worked for them, HP made the best Unix workstations, plotters, printers and scanners on the market. When I worked for Sony I tested laptops, desktops and portable music devices. If there is no comparison, it's because registering voters is orders of magnitude more simple than what electronics companies do.
You wouldn't falsify registration applications, why do you insist on making excuses for those who do?
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 07:10 pm (UTC)Of course I do my best when I register voters. But I have no power (and desire no power) to coerce the people who sign up to actually fill out the correct information on the form. Nor do the people I work with have any power to coerce me or my fellow volunteers if we don't meet their standards. They don't even have the time to tell which of us are good or bad; by the time they've received enough of our work to spot those of us who are taking advantage of them we're gone. That doesn't make the group I volunteer for evil or even careless. It's a fact of the nature of the work.
We don't make microchips, we make complete devices
Fine, then it's unrealistic to compare voter registration forms to cable TV boxes, workstation, plotters, printers or scanners. For all the reasons I put forth before.
And I'm not making excuses for people who falsify voter registration applications. I'm "making excuses" for ACORN. Which didn't. They were taken advantage of by a few short-term employees and volunteers. Who were gone and won't be back.
You know this. What's up with you?
A little factoid
Date: 2008-10-17 10:17 pm (UTC)Those 30,000 "bad" (for lack of a better, non-political word)? ACORN flagged them before taking them in (as required.) It was unsympathetic election officials who then publicized them ... without mentioning that ACORN had done quality control on itself.
I think we should be thanking any organization that tried to get the vote out, regardless of which party they support. The real election crisis in this country is that approximately 1/3 of eligible voters are not registered at all -- and the lack of registration is severely skewed to minorities.
Re: A little factoid
Date: 2008-10-17 11:05 pm (UTC)http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009189
I agree totally that voter registration needs to be ramped up, and even more what
"Factoid" describes it perfectly.
Date: 2008-10-18 02:39 am (UTC)The Wall Street Journal, written for the Wall Street executives we just bailed out to the tune of 700 billion tax dollars, doesn't like ACORN, which works for the poor and disenfranchised. This is not much of a surprise. Nor is it any kind of scathing indictment.
The article says that the Justice Department was connecting the dots about ACORN. This would be the same Justice Department that fired Federal Prosecutors for refraining from prosecuting Democratic candidates when there was no evidence of wrongdoing, correct? The Justice Department that the Bush Administration packed with incompetent ideologues under Alberto Gonzales? That "Justice" Department?
So the Justice Department was investigating ACORN in 2006. Maybe they mistook them for Democrats.
Maybe someday we'll have an attorney general who is interested in restoring balance and competence to the Department of Justice. It would be so nice to be able to read/say/think that name without irony. But in the meantime, why should I take DoJ investigations of non-Republicans seriously?
It's also interesting that the WSJ article cites Thor Hearne of the American Center for Voting Rights as one of their sources of opinion. The ACVR disappeared without a trace in the middle of 2007, unlike most NGOs with an actual serious cause (can you imagine Planned Parenthood doing this? The NRA?), and Mr Hearne has apparently cleansed his resume of his association with them, according to this article in Slate. (http://www.slate.com/id/2166589/) Apparently, directed by Karl Rove and his allies, the Bush administration made a concerted effort to prosecute vote fraud, only to discover there was virtually no voter fraud at the polls. (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/12/washington/12fraud.html?ei=5088&en=277feccfa099c7d0&ex=1334030400&pagewanted=all) However, the second prong of the assault on voting rights was to promote this fake think tank to give "academic cachet to the unproven idea that voter fraud is a major problem in elections. That cachet would be used to support the passage of onerous voter-identification laws that depress turnout among the poor, minorities, and the elderly—groups more likely to vote Democratic." (From the Slate article above.)
More information about the American Center for Voting Rights can be found in the corresponding Wikipedia article. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Center_for_Voting_Rights)
I also can't help but notice that article you link to conveniently conflates ACORN with "affiliates." This would be kind of like guilt-by-association, except that the WSJ doesn't even mention the actual name(s) of the real guilty part(ies)--both their actual guilt and the degree, if any, of their association with ACORN would be checkable if we had that information--so the WSJ just elides that inconveniently traceable part. That is a bad sign.
So, yeah, a factoid there. Just let's make sure that people don't mistake it for, you know, a fact.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-18 03:21 am (UTC)Grrr, growl, snap!
no subject
Date: 2008-10-18 03:34 am (UTC)But, yeah, I knew that about the WSJ's editorial page. It wasn't clear to me from the web page it's on that this was an editorial piece, but that makes sense. Of course they'd want readers to think it was some kind of researched article.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-18 04:26 am (UTC)The URL gives it away. But also, their "Review and Outlook" section is opinion--this week they're defending deregulation. One cannot make these things up.
and now we have...
Date: 2008-10-18 06:26 am (UTC)Re: A little factoid
Date: 2008-10-18 02:41 am (UTC)It was specifically because of these problems that ACORN changed its procedures and policies.
There is no indication from vetted reporting ("vetted" from either side, not by themselves) that 2008 is the same.
Sometimes people do learn from their mistakes.
Re: A little factoid
Date: 2008-10-18 03:00 am (UTC)See also my response to Howeird above.
A more-detailed account
Date: 2008-10-18 02:15 pm (UTC)Please, please, please, let's put this to bed. McCain's campaign is behaving incredibly sleazily--there is no need for us to echo them.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-16 11:44 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 02:04 pm (UTC)Donuts are tasty.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 04:16 pm (UTC)Uh sometimes my brain wanders down the completely wrong path when I read LJ posts. It's a little "issue" I have. On the positive side, sometimes it leads to music.
But not today.
Nevermind...
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 07:11 pm (UTC)Which worked, but made me very nervous to drive on. Every time I went over a bump I flinched. I was so glad to have a real tire back on it.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 12:36 am (UTC)According to one article (or column, I forget which) in the Washington Post, there have been cases where ACORN workers themselves have noticed, and properly reported and/or corrected, anomalies in registrations. And the local officials turned right around and cried "VOTER FRAUD!" anyway.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 02:05 pm (UTC)I heard about ACORN flagging questionable registrations too.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 02:14 am (UTC)So today I plugged headphones into my computer, and caught up on the debate here.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 02:06 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 04:44 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 02:08 pm (UTC)I don't know that it would make sense to make it compulsory, if that's what you mean to suggest; I fear it would just increase the signal-to-noise ratio.
Though I know there are countries that do it (that aren't dictatorships--though some dictatorships do it too) and seem to get reasonable results with it.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 03:35 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 10:27 pm (UTC)In midst of all the "Joe the Plumber" business (of which I am quite sure you have heard much, by now) McCain went after Obama for his tax on small business, both in the form of higher taxes for those earning over $250,000 AND in the form of mandatory health insurance coverage -- the business either pays for health insurance or is fined.
McCain asked "How much, Senator Obama, how much will that fine be?"
Obama: (addressed to the camera as to "Joe the Plumber" -- "If you're out there") I'll tell you exactly how much your fine would be. Your fine would be ... zero.
[continues on with details, but is interrupted}
McCain: Zero?!!?
We often talk about jaws dropping, but this is the first time I've actually watched it happen. McCain dropped his jaw, whipped his head around, wide eyes, to look at Obama. The mouth stayed open throughout the
rest of Obama's explanation.)
Obama: Zero. Here's why ...
To be honest, it was funny. I say that just from the sheer theatricality of it all. But, equally honestly, it was extremely sad. The McCain I used to respect would have done enough boning up on his opposition to be able to frame questions better, and not be surprised by the answer. Whoever is running his campaign and prepping him for debates dropped a huge ball here, but it was McCain left hanging in the wind.
It really wasn't a pretty sight. For anyone, pro or con McCain.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-18 02:42 am (UTC)Yes, you'd think he would have studied up on Obama's proposed policies a little better.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-17 10:38 pm (UTC)If you read the transcripts, rather than watching or listening to the debate, you find that both candidates offered reasonable logic flowing from their initial premise. You might not agree with one's premise; but the suggestions and proposals from both candidates flowed consistently from the premise.
However, in the transcripts, you will also find that McCain, while offering valid points throughout, was scattered -- jumping from topic to topic, answering something quickly in order to go back to something else he wanted to revisit, and that something else was usually something (to me) icky -- back to Ayres or ACORN or killing live babies on surgical tables ... This simply isn't the McCain we've seen before, and certainly not anyone I want leading this country, particularly now.
If you watched, you saw McCain tight, tense, angry. Most pundits talked about his eyes. To me, it was all the teeth clenching that got to me. He is somewhat jowly to start with, and the muscles in his jaw, when they get working, really stand out. I don't know if he has any molars left, at this point. The anger was palpable.
Obama was simply unflappable. Some pundits even say boring. In the sense of providing grist for the media scandalmongering, he was indeed, very boring.
However, he, too, had a facial mannerism that did not play well on TV, especially in split screen. When Obama is listening to someone, he tips his head back, which directs his eyes down his nose to the speaker. I don't pretend to know what he means by it -- it could be thoughtful, careful listening or it could be snobbery. But it looks like he's looking down his nose at his opponent. I noticed it during the primaries, and it really shows up on TV.
I doubt either candidate convinced anyone already decided to switch. Both had valid points that would play well to those who agreed with their starting premises.
But if there were any truly undecideds watching, my money was on them climbing on the Obama wagon simply because of his calm logic in the face of McCain's angry scatter.
The polls and headlines seem to say I got it right.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-18 02:45 am (UTC)I hadn't noticed either candidate's physical mannerisms, but then, not having a TV, I've seen very little of them. It's interesting to think about how they looked to people.
I wonder what Obama is thinking inside when he tilts his head back as he listens. I tried doing it myself to see what it feels like from the inside--if I do it one way it feels like I'm thinking very hard about the implications of something; if I do it another way it feels like I'm being snooty. I might have a better idea of which way to do it if I saw Obama actually doing it :-)
It does look from the polls as though Obama garnered more voters to his side than McCain, which I guess is the point.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-18 10:50 pm (UTC)When I do it as if I'm thinking very hard about what I'm hearing, my eyes go to the ceiling. When I do it as if I'm sticking up my nose at something, my eyes go to the something.
Obama's eyes were directed at McCain, at least most of the time, and at least as I can remember it. That said, however, I still don't know that he meant it as snobbery. Unlike me, he has to be careful that he doesn't get blamed, as McCain did in the first debate, of not being willing to look at his opponent.
However, in politics particularly, perception is reality. Either way he meant it, it can easily be perceived as arrogant/condescending. If that perception is happening, he needs to correct himself.
ACORN, one more time
Date: 2008-10-18 06:35 am (UTC)"WASHINGTON — An ACORN community organizer received a death threat and the liberal activist group's Boston and Seattle offices were vandalized Thursday, reflecting mounting tensions over its role in registering 1.3 million mostly poor and minority Americans to vote next month." At McClatchy, via Hullabaloo.